Early Identification of Young People at Risk of Poor Educational and Labour Market Outcomes

Funder: Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)       

October 2016 – October 2018                                                 

This ESRC-funded project is one of the first investigations of the full English administrative data record (called LEO, or Longitudinal Education Outcomes[1]). This dataset links information on individuals in England across the National Pupil Database (NPD), which contains the full school census; data on all HE enrolments in Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data; information on all Further Education enrolments, contained within the Individualised Learner Record (ILR); HMRC employment data (P45 and P14) and DWP Benefits information. This dataset is not currently publicly available and together with LSE and IFS, we are the only researchers to be given access.

Research aims

This study addressed the following key research questions:

  • What are the key factors that emerge throughout a pupil’s school history that lead to poor educational and labour market outcomes?
  • What are the impacts of different types of post-16 Institution, and course achievement, on labour market outcomes?
  • How accurately are we able to predict such outcomes, using information gained from analysis of these relationships to create a predictive tool?

The project used a unique dataset that represented the census of all state school pupils’ Key Stage test results along with school and individual characteristics, linked with higher and further education destination and attainment information, and linked with HMRC earnings information and benefit receipt information.

Project team